• Realized Price is a metric used for bear and bull markets.
• Long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) are the two cohorts driving the market.
• The LTH-STH cost basis ratio can illustrate how the market dynamic is shifting.
Realized price is a metric often used to determine market movements in bear and bull markets. Defined as the value of all Bitcoins at the price they were bought divided by the number of circulating coins, realized price effectively shows the cost-basis of the network.
Long-Term Holders vs Short Term Holders
Dividing the network into cohorts can help us reflect the aggregate cost basis for each major group owning Bitcoin. Long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) are the two primary cohorts driving the market — LTHs are all addresses that held BTC for longer than 155 days, while STHs are addresses that held onto BTC for less than 155 days.
The LTH-STH Cost Basis Ratio
The LTH-STH cost basis ratio is the ratio between the realized price for long-term and short-term holders. Given the historically different behaviors LTHs and STHs exhibit, the ratio between their realized prices can illustrate how the market dynamic is shifting.
Uptrend in Ratio Shows Bear Market Accumulation
An uptrend in the LTH-STH cost basis ratio is seen when STHs realize more losses than LTHs. This shows that short-term holders are selling their BTC to LTHs, indicating a bear market accumulation phase led by LTHs.
Ratio Higher Than 1 Indicates Late Stage Bear Market Capitulations
A downtrend in